5/15/25 ECEA Members Update
WHAT is Going On in our Nation??? National Policy Impacting your business...Here's what we know (with some AI support):
CCDBG (Funds CCCAP - Child Care Assistance Program):
CCDBG supports 1.4 million children’s childcare
$8.75B, FY2024
$7.350B FY2023
With the 2024 NEW CCDF (child care development fund) regulations, Colorado alone would need another $70 Million from the federal government to meet the requirements.
Child Tax Credit:
The federal Child Tax Credit (CTC) faces changes as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires in 2025. Current CTC is $2,000 per child under 17, with $1,700 refundable. Proposals include:
- House GOP: Raise CTC to $2,500 through 2028, then $2,000; cap refund at $1,400. Benefits middle/higher-income families more.
- Wyden-Smith (Bipartisan): Increase refundable cap to $2,000 by 2025, remove cap, add lookback provision. Helps 16M kids, lifts 400,000 from poverty.
- Democrats: Restore 2021 expansion ($3,000–$3,600/child, fully refundable, monthly payments) or tiered CTC ($3,600–$6,360 by age). Cuts poverty significantly.
- Others: GOP Sens. Britt ($4,000 care credit) and Hawley ($5,000 CTC).
Debates focus on refundability, earnings thresholds, and costs ($693B for TCJA extension). Without action, CTC drops to $1,000 in 2026, hitting 40M families.
Federal Department of Education:
Trump’s Executive Order (March 2025): Directs DOE closure, shifts education to states, ends DEI programs. Needs congressional approval.
Legislation:
- Sen. Mike Rounds: “Returning Education to Our States” bill transfers Title I, IDEA to other agencies, gives states block grants.
- Rep. Thomas Massie’s H.R. 899: Abolishes DOE by mid-2026, minimal program transfers.
- Feb 2025 House Bill: Seeks DOE elimination by 2026, lacks broad support.
Actions: DOE staff cut from 4,133 to 2,183; further reductions in litigation.
DOE Role:
- Manages $238B for Title I ($18B, 26M students),
- IDEA ($34B, 7.5M students),
- Pell Grants, $1.6T student loans;
- enforces civil rights.
Impacts:
- Pros: Reduces federal “overreach,” empowers states, cuts bureaucracy.
- Cons: Risks funding chaos, weakens civil rights, hurts low-income/disabled students, strains state budgets.
Hurdles: Needs 60 Senate votes (unlikely with 53 GOP); 60% of Americans oppose per March 2025 poll. Legal challenges loom.
Outlook (per Grok 3): Full elimination unlikely; partial dismantling possible.
Head Start:
Trump’s Budget Plan: A draft FY2026 budget proposes eliminating all funding for Head Start, a $12B program serving ~800,000 low-income children with early education, health, and nutrition services. Since then, statements have been made that the program will not be eliminated.
Actions: Since January 2025, the Trump administration froze Head Start funds (later reversed), cut ~10,000 HHS jobs (including 30–45% of ACF staff managing Head Start), and closed five of ten regional offices, disrupting support for 22 states.
- Congressional Response: Congress, which controls funding, passed a March 2025 bill cutting Head Start by $750M, despite a Senate proposal to increase it by $700M. Elimination requires congressional approval, unlikely due to bipartisan support.
Impacts:
- Families: Loss of childcare for ~800,000 kids, forcing parents to quit jobs or pay unaffordable costs ($11,582/year average). Harms rural areas most, where Head Start is 22–40% of childcare.
- Equity: Disproportionately affects Black/Latino (67% of participants) and disabled children, worsening poverty and educational gaps.
- Economy: Cuts could reduce workforce participation, costing billions. Head Start yields $10 societal return per $1 invested.
In the end, the Federal Government is working to decrease the overall infrastructure of the Government. Civilian workforce in the federal government over the past 20 years has decreased by .3 million however contract workforce has increased significantly, with about $759 Billion in contracts (2023), employing millions indirectly.
Our national debt:
- 2005: $7.9 trillion (60% of GDP).
- 2025: $36 trillion (126% of GDP), doubled from $18T in 2015. CBO projects 116% of GDP by 2034.
- Growth: 356% nominal increase, driven by deficits (e.g., $1.8T in 2024, up 8% from 2023). Spending outpaced revenue (taxes up 60% to $4.9T, spending up 98% to $7T, 2015–2025)
Growth Trends (2005–2025)
- Spending: Tripled nominally, outpacing inflation and GDP growth. Share of GDP rose from ~20% to ~27% (2020s).
- Employment: Core civilian workforce stable, but contractor growth expanded “true size” significantly.
- Debt: Quadrupled, with debt-to-GDP ratio doubling, reflecting unchecked deficits.
- Regulations: Expanded until recent repeals, though compliance costs remain high.
- Key Drivers: Post-2008 stimulus, COVID-19 spending, entitlement growth (Medicare, Social Security), and defense. Wars, recessions, and ideological shifts (e.g., Progressive Era, New Deal legacies) entrenched larger government
With less federal government overhead and policy oversight, states will gain more flexibility for their programs to serve their communities as long as they align with national interests. Colorado is pushing hard to not align with those national interests. The Co State legislators provided $4 million in state funds to fight federal expectations. You may think that is good, you may think that is bad. We are just doing our best to take away the noise and present what is happening...so that YOU can decide! We just wonder...if you can't run your household on a fiscal deficit, how can the government be allowed to do so?
Here's Colorado, when it comes to Federal job losses:
More info about the state of Colorado's Economy can be found at:
https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/business/quarterlyReports/2025/2025Q1EconomicIndicatorsReport.pdf There's a lot there to look at and mull over!
CATCH A NEW ECEA MEMBER RUN DOWN.
We will summarize the legislative requirements that came from this years session for your child care/preschool business!
You can find it here: https://youtu.be/iY-DWA_V8Q4
PROVIDE UPK FEEDBACK HERE---JUST DO IT!!!
Colorado Department of Early Childhood (CDEC) has contracted with Child Trends, a national research organization focused on improving the lives of children and youth, to do a process evaluation of Colorado Universal Preschool Program (CO UPK). See more details in the one-pager linked below.
As part of this evaluation, Child Trends is inviting you and other state and regional leaders to participate in a survey about the CO UPK. The survey will cover topics such as:
• Communications with providers, families, and the public about CO UPK
• The CO UPK application, matching, and enrollment process
• The systems or reporting procedures in place (or not) to support continuous improvement processes for CO UPK
Findings from this survey will be used to inform ongoing and future state-level work to support CO UPK (see more details linked at the bottom of this email).
This brief survey is voluntary. Your survey responses are confidential, and the results will be summarized in a way that cannot identify any specific individual. To further protect your privacy, please refrain from including personally identifiable information in open-ended responses. Child Trends will keep the survey responses secure within the survey platform and computer folders and will summarize and share the survey findings with CDEC. CDEC will not see your individual survey responses. We will not share your private information with anyone outside of the study team.
We ask that you please complete this survey by May 23. The survey takes less than 20 minutes to complete.
Click here to take the survey.
Thank you for your time sharing your feedback on this important effort!
If you have any questions, please feel free to email us at [email protected].
Sincerely,
Doré LaForett, Project Director, Child Trends CO UPK Evaluation Team
Dawn Odean, Universal Preschool Program Director, Colorado Department of Early Childhood
Marketing 360 is offering a website and market analysis as part of your ECEA membership.
You have two dedicated reps, Ryan and David, with a combined 20+ years of digital marketing experience.
Click here to book your 30-minute consultation
Our Website was developed by then. We can modify and change anything on our own VERY EASILY from our dashboard. It also enables us to do social media campaigns with or without their assistance directly from our dashboard. Want a preview before talking to them? Schedule with Dawn and get an unofficial tour of their platform that we use!
STATUS OF THE BUDGET RECONCILIATION BILL - THIS determines what will happen with Government Cutbacks, etc.
The FY2025 budget reconciliation bill, aimed at advancing President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, is progressing through Congress with significant developments as of May 15, 2025. Below is a concise status update, integrating relevant context from prior discussions on the Child Tax Credit (CTC), Department of Education (DOE), Head Start, Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG), and federal government size reduction efforts.
Want to see the "One Big Beautiful Bill? Here it is: https://waysandmeans.house.
Want Here's the Summary of things in it, including an additional $60 Million in revenue for Charter Schools to support school choice!
Current Status of the Reconciliation Bill
- Budget Resolution Passed: Congress adopted a concurrent FY2025 budget resolution on April 10, 2025, after Senate amendments on April 5 and House approval (216-214). This unlocks the reconciliation process, allowing a bill to bypass the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster with a simple majority (51 votes or 50 plus the Vice President).House Progress:
- Most House committees (e.g., Ways and Means, Judiciary, Armed Services, Education and Workforce) completed markups of their reconciliation portions by May 13, 2025. The House Budget Committee is scheduled to combine these into a single package on May 16, 2025, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act.
- Instructions allow up to $4.8 trillion in gross borrowing, offset by $2 trillion in gross savings, netting a $2.8 trillion deficit increase over 2025–2034. An amendment mandates $2 trillion in spending cuts, though committee allocations are unspecified.
- Senate Dynamics:
- Senate instructions permit a $5.8 trillion net deficit increase with only $4 billion in gross deficit reductions, using a “current policy” baseline that assumes Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions continue, reducing the perceived cost of extensions.
- Senate Finance Committee and others are drafting provisions, but differences with the House (e.g., deficit targets, baseline assumptions) require resolution for identical bills to pass both chambers.
- Timeline: House aims to finalize its bill by Memorial Day 2025, with negotiations targeting a signed law by July 4, 2025. Senate action may delay this, with debt ceiling concerns (potentially hitting May–September 2025) adding urgency.
Key Provisions and Connections
- Tax Policy (CTC Context):
- Extends TCJA provisions expiring December 2025, costing $4 trillion over 10 years (CBO). House Ways and Means proposes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, including CTC expansion to $2,500/child through 2028 ($693 billion cost). Senate considers permanent TCJA provisions and new cuts (e.g., no taxes on tips, overtime, Social Security benefits).
- CTC expansion aligns with GOP tax relief but risks being offset by proposed cuts to DOE, Head Start, and potentially CCDBG, reducing childcare/school support for low-income families (e.g., Wyden-Smith’s 400,000 kids lifted from poverty).
- Spending Cuts (DOE, Head Start, CCDBG):
- House targets $2 trillion in cuts, with $880 billion from Energy and Commerce (Medicaid, SNAP). Education and Workforce recommends DOE elimination, transferring Title I/IDEA to other agencies, aligning with Trump’s executive order. Head Start’s $12 billion cut is proposed, with no confirmed CCDBG cuts ($8.75 billion), though HHS staff reductions (30–45% ACF) threaten administration.
- Cuts risk negating CTC benefits by increasing childcare costs ($11,582/year) and reducing education access, especially for low-income, Black, and Latino families (67% of Head Start participants).
- Immigration and Defense:
- House Judiciary’s bill includes $80 billion for ICE detention ($45 billion) and border barriers ($51.6 billion), potentially eliminating asylum for most via $1,000 fees. Senate prioritizes $150 billion for defense vs. House’s $100 billion.
- Debt Ceiling: House raises the limit by $4 trillion, Senate by $5 trillion, addressing a $1.3 trillion deficit (October 2024–March 2025).
- Government Size Reduction:
- Bill supports Trump’s goal to shrink government, with DOE/Head Start cuts and deregulation (e.g., repealing 22,000 regulatory pages). Over 100,000 federal jobs cut, including DOE (4,133 to 2,183) and HHS (~10,000), align with DOGE’s $500 billion savings claim.
Challenges and Outlook
- House-Senate Differences: House’s $2 trillion cut mandate vs. Senate’s $4 billion reduction floor complicates negotiations. House’s current law baseline ($4.5 trillion TCJA cost) vs. Senate’s current policy baseline ($1.5 trillion) creates fiscal discrepancies.
- Political Resistance: 12 House Republicans oppose Medicaid cuts ($880 billion), and Sens. Susan Collins and Rand Paul voted against the resolution over deficit concerns. Democrats criticize tax cuts for the wealthy and program reductions.
- Senate Viability: Sen. Ron Johnson predicts the House bill may “sink” in the Senate due to fiscal concerns and Trump’s tariff uncertainties.
- Byrd Rule: Limits extraneous provisions (e.g., non-fiscal policies) and deficit increases beyond 2034, potentially stripping immigration or regulatory changes.
- Deficit Impact: The bill could add $2.8–$3.3 trillion to deficits (2025–2034), exceeding prior laws like the TCJA ($1.5 trillion) or American Rescue Plan ($1.8 trillion).
Conclusion
The FY2025 reconciliation bill is advancing, with House markups nearly complete and a Budget Committee markup set for May 16, 2025. It includes TCJA extensions, CTC expansion, DOE/Head Start cuts, immigration enforcement, and defense increases, but faces House-Senate discord, GOP resistance, and Byrd Rule constraints. While aiming for a July 4 signing, Senate delays and deficit concerns may push this timeline. Cuts to DOE/Head Start (and potential CCDBG risks) could undermine CTC’s poverty reduction by limiting childcare/education access. For updates, check www.crfb.org or www.congress.gov.[](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/2025-reconciliation-tracker)[](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/fy-2025-reconciliation-bill-tally)
Just an FYI - the National Small Business Association supports the pre-mark draft of the reconciliation bill. See their letter of support here:
Colorado Universal Preschool Students Exhibit Accelerated Developmental Growth, Surpassing Peers by Kindergarten Entry
Thousands of vulnerable Colorado families can’t access child care after federal rule changes
Trump's dismantling of Education Department gives states 'green light' to pursue voucher programs
Child care costs still rising as the Trump administration eyes incentives to boost falling birthrate
A $5 Billion Federal School Voucher Proposal Advances in Congress
Sen. Cruz Introduces the Invest America Act
Federal Department of Labor Stops Enforcing 2024 Contractor Rule
Trump's tax bill aims to extend tax cuts and gives kids $1,000
Verbal Abuse in Childhood Rewires the Developing Brain
https://memberportal.coloradoecea.org/ap/Events/Register/EqFb6O6TgC6C9
Free vaccine clinics for those without insurance: https://cdphe.colorado.gov/find-free-low-cost-vaccine-provider
Reminder: June 6 deadline for UPK reconciliation issues.
Expenditure Reporting Reminder
- Expenditures must be reported quarterly in December, March, and June
- Please continue to submit your expenditures via Metrix Enroll - here are step-by-step instructions
- FAQ - Expenditure Reporting FAQ
ECEA Members:
Tell someone to join today!!!
